3. Extending the runway and increasing runway capacity will increase the climate-change impact of Birmingham International Airport and make it more difficult to reduce that impact in future.

In the UK, domestic flights and international departures account for around 6 per cent of the country's total output of climate-changing carbon dioxide emissions. While aviation is by no means the only or even the largest contributor to climate change, carbon dioxide emissions from air travel are growing faster than any other source, and at a time when emissions from most other sources are declining. Carbon dioxide emissions from UK aviation doubled between 1990 and 2000, during which time the combined carbon dioxide emissions of from all other UK activities fell by around 9 per cent. Aviation emissions are set to more than double again between 2000 and 2030, and could increase to between 4 and 10 times their 1990 level by 2050. [1]

In addition to carbon dioxide, aircraft emit a mixture of other substances, including other global-warming greenhouse gases, the combined effect of which when emitted at cruising altitude is to increase significantly the climate-change impact of aviation over and above that of aircraft carbon dioxide emissions alone. [2]

The Government has committed itself to reducing carbon dioxide emissions from all UK activities by 60 per cent on 1990 levels by 2050. Meeting even this target, however, let alone the more ambitious target of 80-90 per cent now being urged by many scientists, will be all but impossible if aviation is allowed to carry on expanding at its present rate. It is highly unlikely that non-aviation sectors of the economy will be able to deliver sufficient cuts in their emissions to offset the growth in emissions from aviation.

'Power companies,manufacturers, retailers,households,motorists and hauliers are already going tohave to make significant efforts to decarbonise their lives and livelihoods. If the Government continues in its policy of allowing just this one industry [aviation] to grow, it will either cause severe pain to all other sectors or provoke so much opposition as to fatally undermine its 2050 target.' [3]

'UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts', a report published in December 2007 by the Department for Transport (DfT), ranked Birmingham International Airport (BIA) as currently the joint-fifth biggest airport (with Glasgow) for carbon dioxide emissions in the UK and the second biggest (after Manchester) outside of the South East of England. [4] 

The report reveals that carbon dioxide emissions from operations at BIA are projected to treble over the next twenty-five years. In 2005, aircraft flying out of Birmingham are estimated to have emitted 1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere; by 2030 that figure will have risen to 3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year if the expansion proposals in the current Master Plan go ahead as planned. [5]  

(It should be noted that the report only counts the carbon dioxide emissions from departure flights. Had the DfT chosen a measure more representative of UK aviation, such as return flights by UK citizens, then the figures for emissions would be higher.) 

The report goes on to compare current and forecast carbon dioxide emissions from long-haul and short-haul/domestic air transport movements (ATMs) for each airport (although again it should be noted that the emissions figures include emissions from departures only whereas an ATM is defined as an aircraft landing or take-off). In 2005, virtually all the carbon dioxide emissions from BIA's operations were attributable to short-haul and domestic ATMs, which accounted for 109,000 of the total 113,000 ATMs. [6] However, by 2030 two thirds of BIA's carbon dioxide emissions will be attributable to long-haul ATMs, even though these account for just 39,000 of the total 232,000 ATMs forecast for that year. [7] This shows how the Runway Extension, by increasing the range of long-haul destinations available from BIA, has the potential to significantly increase the airport's contribution to climate change. 

By way of climate change 'mitigation', the Master Plan offers only a token gesture of support for aviation's eventual inclusion under the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme, and a handful of other policies to do with promoting public transport, energy efficiency and renewables, none of which has any bearing on emissions from aircraft. [8] 

The UK government is pushing to have aviation emissions incorporated under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, and the European Commission is in the process of developing a legislative proposal to make this happen. While it represents a small step in the right direction, the inclusion of aviation within the existing Scheme is unlikely to have a significant impact on the demand for flights and the growth in aviation emissions, according to a detailed feasibility study of the proposals undertaken for the Commission in 2005. [9]  

Improved aircraft technology and better air traffic management cannot by themselves deliver the necessary reductions in emissions in the short-to-medium term, where they are most needed. Incremental improvements in aircraft engine performance might manage a small reduction in emissions per flight, but air travel is growing at such a rate that aircraft technology cannot keep pace with the huge growth in aviation's overall emissions. 

Thus, if we are serious about reducing aviation's climate change impact, then there is no alternative but to slow the rate of fair traffic growth, by restricting airport expansion and using taxation and other economic instruments to manage the rising demand for air travel. The time to do this is now, before our economy and culture becomes any more 'air dependent'. 

'The UK is increasingly developing an air dependent culture. If action to tackle flying is postponed, we will enter an era in which frequent flying is increasingly the norm for better-off households, with lifestyles adapted to this expectation,including far greater ownership of second homes abroad, and more geographically-distant networks of friends and family . . .' [10] 

'Action taken now to reduce demand is likely to be easier, because ‘air dependence’ is still at a relatively early stage.The greatest threat to the UK’s successful mitigation of climate change is contained in a growth in demand that has not yet happened. This means that, whilst aviation may be a poor candidate for emissions reduction through technological efficiency, it is a very good candidate for demand restraint.' [11] 

References 

[1]  Oxford University Environmental Change Institute, 'Predict and Decide: Aviation, Climate Change and UK Policy', September 2006, p21. www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/predictanddecide.pdf 

[2] Ibid., p16. 

[3] House of Commons Environmental Audit Select Committee, 'Reducing carbon emissions from transport', ninth report of session 2005‐06, July 2006, p61. 

[4] Department for Transport, 'UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts', November 2007, Table G10: O2 emissions at airport level 2005 and 2030 detailed, p117.http://tinyurl.com/2pswmm. 

[5] Ibid. 

[6] Ibid., Table G.11: ATMs (short vs long haul), available seat-kms, average flight length, and CO2 emissions (short vs long haul), by UK airport, 2005, p118.  

[7] Ibid., Table G.12: ATMs (short vs long haul), available seat-kms, average flight length, and CO2 emissions (short vs long haul), by UK airport, 2030, p119.  

[8] Birmingham International Airport Ltd., 'Towards 2030: planning a sustainable future for air transport in the Midlands', November 2007, para.9.36-9.39 and Environmental Policies ENV15-ENV17, p94. 

[9] Wit, R. C. N., et al, 'Giving wings to emissions trading: Inclusion of aviation under the European emission trading system (ETS):design and impacts', CE Delft, Netherlands, July 2006. Report for the European Commission, DG ENV, ENV.C.2/ETU/2004/0074r  

[10] Oxford University Environmental Change Institute, 'Predict and Decide: Aviation, Climate Change and UK Policy', September 2006, p5. 

[11] Ibid., p36.